Scott Walker leads in new Wisconsin recall poll

Gov. Scott Walker (R) is up six points over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) in a new Wisconsin gubernatorial recall poll from Marquette Law School.

Walker leads Barrett 50 to 44 among 600 likely voters in the school’s first survey since the May 8 Democratic primary. Their last poll, released May 2, showed a dead heat.

The recall, sparked by Walker’s elimination of collective bargaining rights for most* public employees in early 2011, is only a few weeks away.

Gov. Scott Walker greets supporters May 8 at an election night rally at the Waukesha County Republican Victory Center in Waukesha, Wis. (Charles Auer - AP)

There appears to be an enthusiasm gap: 91 percent of Republicans say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the recall compared to only 83 percent of Democrats.

Democrats in the state are reportedly angry with the national party for not investing more in this race. Walker has spent more than $20 million so far.

The same survey finds Walker’s job approval staying steady at 50 percent, with disapproval at 46 percent. That’s despite continuing negative views of job trends in the state.

Thirty-seven percent of likely voters like what Walker has done, 38 percent don’t like it, and 22 percent “like what he’s done but not how he’s done it.”

The same poll finds Romney has moved into a tie with Obama in Wisconsin among likely voters in the fall election.

Democrats only have a one-point registration advantage in the survey, a decline from past polls, which the pollsters note could be a random variation or a sign of growing Republican support in the state.

Marquette interviewed 704 registered Wisconsin voters by both landline and cellphone from May 9 to 12. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points for the full sample. For the 600 “likely voters,” the margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. 

* Police officers and firefighters were excluded from these reforms; this post has been updated to reflect that.